binance/apitest/ucb.py

import ccxt
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import math
from scipy.stats import beta
import backtrader as bt
import os

# Top 15 coins (symbols against USDT)
coins = ['BTC/USDT', 'ETH/USDT', 'BNB/USDT', 'SOL/USDT', 'XRP/USDT', 'ADA/USDT', 'DOGE/USDT', 
         'AVAX/USDT', 'SHIB/USDT', 'DOT/USDT', 'LINK/USDT', 'TRX/USDT', 'UNI/USDT', 'LTC/USDT']

exchange = ccxt.binance({'enableRateLimit': True})

def fetch_ohlcv(symbol, timeframe='1h', days=90):
    # Create a filename based on symbol and timeframe
    safe_symbol = symbol.replace('/', '_')
    filename = f"ohlcv_{safe_symbol}_{timeframe}_{days}d.csv"
    if os.path.exists(filename):
        df = pd.read_csv(filename, parse_dates=['timestamp'], index_col='timestamp')
        return df
    since = int((datetime.now() - timedelta(days=days)).timestamp() * 1000)
    ohlcv = exchange.fetch_ohlcv(symbol, timeframe, since=since)
    df = pd.DataFrame(ohlcv, columns=['timestamp', 'open', 'high', 'low', 'close', 'volume'])
    df['timestamp'] = pd.to_datetime(df['timestamp'], unit='ms')
    df.set_index('timestamp', inplace=True)
    df.to_csv(filename)
    return df


def compute_atr(df, period=14):
    high_low = df['high'] - df['low']
    high_close = np.abs(df['high'] - df['close'].shift())
    low_close = np.abs(df['low'] - df['close'].shift())
    tr = np.maximum(high_low, high_close, low_close)
    atr = tr.rolling(period).mean()
    return atr

def compute_ema(df, short=12, long=26):
    df['ema_short'] = df['close'].ewm(span=short, adjust=False).mean()
    df['ema_long'] = df['close'].ewm(span=long, adjust=False).mean()
    df['trend'] = np.where(df['ema_short'] > df['ema_long'], 1, -1)  # 1 = uptrend

def compute_rewards(df):
    df['return'] = (df['close'] - df['open']) / df['open']
    df['atr'] = compute_atr(df)
    compute_ema(df)
    df['reward'] = df['return'] * df['trend'] / df['atr'].replace(0, np.nan)  # Adjust by vol and trend
    if len(df) > 0:
        print('%d %f' % (len(df), df['reward'].iloc[len(df)-1]))
    else:
        print('DataFrame is empty, no rewards computed.')
    return df.dropna()




class ThompsonSampling:
    def __init__(self, num_arms):
        self.alpha = np.ones(num_arms)  # Successes +1
        self.beta = np.ones(num_arms)   # Failures +1

    def select_arm(self):
        samples = [beta.rvs(a, b) for a, b in zip(self.alpha, self.beta)]
        return np.argmax(samples)

    def update(self, arm, reward):  # Assume reward >0 is success
        self.alpha[arm] += 1 if reward > 0 else 0
        self.beta[arm] += 0 if reward > 0 else 1

class UCB:
    def __init__(self, num_arms, c=2.0):  # c is exploration constant
        self.num_arms = num_arms
        self.counts = np.zeros(num_arms)  # Trades per coin
        self.mean_rewards = np.zeros(num_arms)
        self.total_pulls = 0
        self.c = c

    def select_arm(self):
        ucb_scores = np.zeros(self.num_arms)
        for i in range(self.num_arms):
            if self.counts[i] == 0:
                return i  # Explore unpulled arms first
            ucb_scores[i] = self.mean_rewards[i] + self.c * math.sqrt(math.log(self.total_pulls) / self.counts[i])
        return np.argmax(ucb_scores)

    def update(self, arm, reward):
        self.counts[arm] += 1
        self.total_pulls += 1
        self.mean_rewards[arm] = (self.mean_rewards[arm] * (self.counts[arm] - 1) + reward) / self.counts[arm]



class BanditStrategy(bt.Strategy):
    def __init__(self):
        self.ucb = UCB(len(coins))  # One arm per coin
        self.coin_map = {i: coin for i, coin in enumerate(coins)}  # Map arm index to coin symbol
        # self.datas[0] is first coin, etc.

    def next(self):
        # Get current rewards for all coins (from custom 'reward' column)
        current_rewards = [self.datas[i].reward[0] for i in range(len(self.datas))]  # [0] is current bar
        
        # Select arm (coin) using UCB
        arm = self.ucb.select_arm()
        
        # Get the data for the selected coin
        selected_data = self.datas[arm]
#        ucb_score = self.ucb.mean_rewards[arm] + self.ucb.c * math.sqrt(math.log(self.ucb.total_pulls ) / (self.ucb.counts[arm] + 1e-6))
        if self.ucb.total_pulls > 0:
            ucb_score = self.ucb.mean_rewards[arm] + self.ucb.c * math.sqrt(
                math.log(self.ucb.total_pulls) / (self.ucb.counts[arm] + 1e-6)
            )
        else:
            ucb_score = self.ucb.mean_rewards[arm]
        # Signal logic: Enter if score > threshold (e.g., 0.05)
        threshold = 0.05
        if ucb_score > threshold and not self.position:  # Not already in position
            self.buy(data=selected_data, size=1)  # Buy 1 unit (adjust for portfolio size)
            print(f"Entering trade on {self.coin_map[arm]} at {selected_data.close[0]}")
        
        # Exit logic: If in position, check for vol-adjusted profit target (e.g., 5-10%)
        if self.position:
            entry_price = self.position.price
            current_price = selected_data.close[0]
            atr = selected_data.atr[0]  # Use custom ATR column
            profit_target = 0.05 + 0.05 * atr  # Vol-adjusted (e.g., higher for volatile coins)
            if (current_price - entry_price) / entry_price > profit_target:
                self.sell(data=selected_data, size=self.position.size)
                print(f"Exiting trade on {self.coin_map[arm]} at {current_price}")
        
        # Update UCB with the realized reward for the selected arm
        realized_reward = current_rewards[arm]  # Or calculate from trade if executed
        self.ucb.update(arm, realized_reward)

class PandasCustom(bt.feeds.PandasData):
    lines = ('reward', 'atr',)  # Add more if needed
    params = (
        ('reward', -1),  # -1 means auto-detect column
        ('atr', -1),
    )


def main():
    # Fetch data for all coins
    
    data = {coin: fetch_ohlcv(coin, '1h', 30) for coin in coins}

    # Apply to all data
    for coin in data:
        print(f"Computing rewards for {coin}...")   
        data[coin] = compute_rewards(data[coin])

    # Usage example (simulate over time steps)
    ucb = UCB(len(coins))
    # for t in range(len(data[coins[0]])):  # Assume aligned timestamps
    #     arm = ucb.select_arm()
    #     coin = coins[arm]
    #     reward = data[coin].iloc[t]['reward']  # Or simulate trade reward
    #     ucb.update(arm, reward)
    # min_len = min(len(df) for df in data.values())  # Ensure no out-of-bounds
    # print (min_len)
    # for t in range(min_len):
    #     arm = ucb.select_arm()
    #     coin = coins[arm]
    #     reward = data[coin].iloc[t]['reward']
    #     ucb.update(arm, reward)
    max_len = max(len(df) for df in data.values())  # Use the max length

    # for t in range(max_len):
    #     arm = ucb.select_arm()
    #     coin = coins[arm]
    #     df = data[coin]
    #     if t < len(df):
    #         reward = df.iloc[t]['reward']
    #         ucb.update(arm, reward)
    #     # else: skip this step for this coin

    for t in range(max_len):
        arm = ucb.select_arm()
        coin = coins[arm]
        df = data[coin]
        # Check if DataFrame is non-empty and has 'reward' column
        if len(df) > 0 and 'reward' in df.columns and t < len(df):
            reward = df.iloc[t]['reward']
            ucb.update(arm, reward)
        # else: skip this step for this coin


    # Setup Cerebro and add data feeds
    cerebro = bt.Cerebro()
    cerebro.addstrategy(BanditStrategy)
    cerebro.broker.setcash(100000.0)  # Starting capital
    cerebro.broker.setcommission(0.001)  # 0.1% fees

    # Add each coin's data as a PandasData feed
    for i, (coin, df) in enumerate(data.items()):
        # Ensure DF is sorted and has no duplicates
        df = df.sort_index().drop_duplicates()
        #data_feed = bt.feeds.PandasData(
        data_feed = PandasCustom(
            dataname=df,
            datetime=None,  # Uses index
            open='open',
            high='high',
            low='low',
            close='close',
            volume='volume',
            # Add custom lines for features (accessible as self.data.reward, etc.)
            #reward=-1,  # -1 means auto-detect column
            #atr=-1,
            # Add more if needed (e.g., ema_short=-1)
        )
        cerebro.adddata(data_feed, name=coin)  # Name for reference

    # Resample if needed (e.g., to daily), but hourly is fine
    # cerebro.resampledata(data_feed, timeframe=bt.TimeFrame.Days)  # Optional

    # Run backtest
    print('Starting Portfolio Value: %.2f' % cerebro.broker.getvalue())
    cerebro.run()
    print('Final Portfolio Value: %.2f' % cerebro.broker.getvalue())

    # Optional: Plot results
    # cerebro.plot()

if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()